Nate Silver Election Model Gives Trump Highest Chance of Winning Since July

Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have reached their highest level since July, according to the latest projections from Nate Silver’s election model.
Silver’s forecast model gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 39.7 percent, with the former president taking 277 electoral votes to the vice president’s 260.
The latest prediction gives Trump his highest chance of winning since July 30.
The model also shows that the Republicans have made a net gain of between 0.1 and 2 points in every swing state other than Georgia and Wisconsin in the past week. Meanwhile, Trump leads in every battleground state other than Michigan and Wisconsin, where the candidates are tied.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Trump previously led President Joe Biden in the polls, with every polling aggregator putting the former president ahead nationally and in the swing states. However, when Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21, making Harris the candidate, the Democrats saw a dramatic reversal of fortune in the polls.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the vice president is currently 3.1 points ahead nationally. Harris is also now leading in five of the seven swing states.
Electoral College forecasts, including Silver’s, also put Harris ahead. However, according to Silver’s model, Harris’ lead is now starting to unravel.
He attributes this to several factors, including a lower-than-expected poll bump for the vice president following the Democratic National Convention. According to Silver’s model, Harris would have expected a two-point boost following the DNC; however, her lead has only increased by 1.2 points.
Silver added that former 2024 independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump last month may have eaten into any expected increase from the DNC. However, he also said Harris’ weak numbers in Pennsylvania influenced the model.
“Comparatively poor polling for Harris in Pennsylvania, which is disproportionately important given Pennsylvania’s likelihood of being the pivotal state. As a result, the Electoral College forecast has swung more than the popular vote forecast,” Silver wrote.
The latest surveys conducted by Wick and Emerson College between August 25 and August 29 showed Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania. Another recent survey by Trafalgar Group found the former president 2 points ahead in the battleground state. Meanwhile, a Patriot Polling survey conducted between September 1 and 3 put Trump 1 point ahead in the state.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is most likely to be the tipping point state in this election, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Despite Silver’s assessment, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast projects that the Democrats will win Pennsylvania by 0.7 points.
Meanwhile, other pollsters are showing that Harris is ahead in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model showed that Harris would win with 285 electoral votes to Trump’s 253. RealClearPolitics also has Harris ahead in the Electoral College when tossup states are removed.
Although Silver’s assessment may differ from other pollsters, it is in line with other polling aggregators, which show Harris is predicted to win the popular vote. Silver’s model shows that Harris has a 58 percent chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 41 percent chance, while FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris is predicted to win 51 percent of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 48 percent.
The forecasts indicate that although Harris could secure the popular vote, the Electoral College outcome is expected to be closely contested, especially in swing states with razor-thin margins. This makes the race highly competitive and still up for grabs for either candidate.
Such was the case in 2016, when polls underestimated Trump’s support, predicting a win for Hillary Clinton. The former secretary of state won the popular vote but failed to win the Electoral College.
Experts believe that the polls will not be as inaccurate this year because they have gotten better at capturing likely Trump supporters who were undercounted in the past. Thus, Harris’ lead in the polls could accurately reflect voters across the country.
“Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount,” Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek.
Silver has said that Harris’ standing in the polls could yet improve as his model becomes more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.